Those who are interested in betting should always look for ways to develop, and one of them is reading books. “Meta Reviews” tells about 3 books that will be useful to those who play bets and make sports predictions. Go now with URL to check more info
1. Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets (Nassim Nicolas Taleb, 2001) This book was published in 2001 and has been reprinted three times since then. It has been translated into 20 languages and sold over a million copies worldwide. Nassim Nicolas Taleb, a former professor emeritus at Oxford and Massachusetts and now Professor Emeritus of Risk Analysis at New York University Polytechnic will never receive an award for his writing style, which can be described as rather caustic at best and arrogant at worst. However, you forget about his shortcomings as a writer when it comes to the essence of the works. Fooled by Chance: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets brilliantly reveals how much we suffer from our inability to determine the likelihood of an event, and how this weakness manifests itself. Taleb looks at the problem from the perspective of a financial industry worker, but stock market traders can easily be replaced by bettors, and you will see how easy it is to confuse luck with knowledge of forecasting. Taleb uses probability theory, basic statistics, and behavioral biases in his calculations, along with a fair amount of leniency towards the human mind – this is his way. Taleb does not even know what wide range of issues it covers, but its publication could not have been more timely, given the clear connection of these issues with the financial collapse of 2008, the consequences of which are still felt around the world. In his work, Taleb operates with rich experience. His prophetic warnings and wealth speak in his favor as a forecaster. He uses one of his own conditions of success – in any activity, one must have an “armor”. This book does not contain winning strategies or predictive methods – it contains expert opinions on risk analysis. One of the main thoughts: it is important not to completely trust the experts and correctly assess your own ability to analyze.
2. Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman, 2011) Daniel Kahneman is a Nobel laureate in economics (2002). This is the first non-economist to receive this award. In his works, Kahneman relies on psychological techniques. The central thesis of the book is the separation of the two types of thinking. “System 1” – thinking fast, instinctive, and emotional. System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and logical. The book outlines the biases associated with each of these types of thinking. It highlights the results of decades of scientific research showing that people place too much value on human judgment. In 2012, the book was recognized by the US National Academy of Sciences as the best book of 2011.
3. The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – but Some Don’t (Nate Silver, 2012) This book is not only about betting, it contains valuable information on a skill that is essential to successful betting – predictive power. The book has been translated into 7 languages. Nate Silver is considered by many to be the face of modern forecasting. He rose to fame after correctly predicting the results of presidential elections in every single state in the United States in 2012. But he devoted himself more to baseball analytics. From “Signal and Noise” we got a textbook on the theory of probability and risk. The book explains why, despite mountains of data in areas such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, financial systems, the ability to predict correctly in these areas remains very limited and the experience is largely unsuccessful. But there are also opposite examples – weather forecasters and some others. Silver reveals the secret of their success.