Honestly? Probably not as much as you might expect.
I expect the largest gains coming from the SOC market at the 5nm and 3nm sector. Mobile platforms will see the biggest gains, further narrowing the gap between desktop and laptop performance.
Right now with 7nm/8nm production the best we are able to do is a 200W RTX 3080 laptop (150W GPU + 50W CPU) making total power requirements with drives, fans, and screen running on a single 230W power brick while still offering unprecedented gaming performance.
With the shift to 5nm production we will see another 30% drop in power requirements for what will probably be a 20% performance gain (on mobile devices).
Anybody remember this thing unleashed just four short years ago at CES 2017?
The $9000 behemoth running a pair of GTX 1080s in SLI, requiring a pair of 330W power bricks. Its performance must have been off the charts. Right?
Wait…What? 76fps. Whoa.
This is my overclocked GTX 1060 at the same 2560×1080 resolution and ultra settings.
Yes I could only get 64fps, but I definitely did not pay $9000 for the system. More like $350. A RTX 3080 would get closer to 175fps for a 1440p laptop you’d get for $2500.
(and just so you know, I crashed my GTX 1060 many times in an effort to hit the 64fps shown here. my final run used a +210MHz OC on the CPU and +445MHZ OC on the VRAM. Even at those settings I had to remove the PC side panel and put a 5″ desk fan blowing directly on the GPU to keep it at a stable 66°C. The GPU runs perfectly stable all day long with a +200/+400 OC, but I was getting 63.3fps. Getting that extra fraction of one FPS for this screenshot took me almost an hour of tinkering.)
That is the difference between a 16nm Pascal GPU and a 8nm Ampere GPU—double the performance for half the wattage.
What happens if we go back ten years?
The GTX 580 released in November 2010 had 1.5GB GDDR5 and 512 cores running at 775MHz. It shipped at $499.
In 2019, the 250W GTX 580 was getting massacred by the 75W GTX 1050…Basically 150% of the performance on 30% of the wattage.
By 2025 we will have 100W laptops that match the performance of a RTX 3070 today. By 2030 we will probably see laptops the are twice as fast as a RTX 3080 that run on 75W.
Maybe 150fps at 4K? On 95W? In a $900 laptop? With a 16TB NVMe SSD? and 64GB of DDR5–5800? We can only hope.